A Further Explanation of the Calculation

This is how the calculation started in my mind. We are all familiar with a win loss record where an undefeated team has a record of 1.0 and a team that has won half its games has a record of 0.5.

So first step is to give a value for each game a team plays based on a 1 for victory and 0 for a loss, but the to those numbers add the opponent's win-loss record. For example, if you win a game against a team that has a record of 0.5 then the value of that game is 1.5, but if you lose it would be 0.5. By this method, the value of a loss to an undefeated team is the same as a victory over a team that has not won a game; both are 1.0. Now as the year goes on, the value of each game will update based on whether the opponent does well or not. In the example, if that opponent's record later in the season was 0.7, then the value of that game would be 1.7, or if they lost games it would go the other way.

But I added a correction into the calculation that removes the outcome of each game from the opponent's win-loss record, so it doesn't reward a team for losing and doesn't lower the value of a victory. For example, if a team defeats a team that otherwise won all of their games, then the score is 1.0 for the victory plus still 1.0 for the opponent's win-loss record even though they just lost.

So as the year goes on you add up the value for each game played and calculate the average value per game played. I then chose to multiply the average by 100 just to make it easier for people to think about, rather than having that decimal in there. So 100 is the "average" score for a team rather than 1.0. They did something like that for IQ measurements.

At the beginning of the year, every team starts exactly equal and have no score at all. Even after their first game, they are still exactly equal with all having a theoretical score of 1.0. It doesn't matter what conference they are in or estimated rankings at the beginning of the year. Only whether teams win and keep winning or lose and keep losing.

That is how I started it out. My idea was that the non-conference games would mix enough so that it would equalize the scores and pull those who played harder schedules up. When I started in the 1990s the conferences were smaller and everyone was playing more non-conference games. But as the years went on they added more and more FBS teams, conferences expanded, teams played fewer non-conference games, and most big teams routinely began adding FCS teams to the schedule.

So I then added up the collective win-loss record of the each teams opponents to be a surrogate for conference play. With each team playing playing 12 games against other teams that played 12 games, the variation in the win-loss record is low and by the end of the year is almost always between 0.45-0.55 with average being 0.5. I then used that as a factor to increase or decrease the value of the opponent's win-loss record by a small amount based on the win-loss record of all of that opponent's opponents. Here I made a judgement and just added 0.5 to that number to make the average 1.0 and then multiply that number against the the opponent's win-loss record, making it go up and down but by the end of the year accounting for less than 10% of the score. This factor does not include FCS at all, only performance against other FBS teams.

Again to make the value of each game more accurate, I remove the win-loss record of the team from the opponent's opponents win-loss record for each game so that it doesn't alter that game's value, and does not overvalue or undervalue the opponent's score for the for the team's own performance.

I analyzed it and the SEC and Big 10 conferences did on the average have higher scores than than the Sun Belt or Mid-America conferences. But some "power" conference teams were actually not very powerful at all. I actually compared several ways to get to this number. Another technique multiplied the 0.45-0.55 score by 2 which gave greater weight to the opponent's opponents records. The year I tested this was when Utah was undefeated and beat Alabama in the bowl game. That year, the way I ended up doing it better predicted the outcomes of bowl games, where teams from different conferences played each other.

I actually tried to take it to a third level measuring the win-loss records of the opponent's opponent's opponents, but change in score was insignificant, so I stopped it as it is.

Then what to do with FCS teams? At first I excluded them completely since they didn't really mix with FBS enough. But the year Appalachian St beat Michigan, I got annoyed because I felt like Michigan should have accounted for the loss. So I inserted the FCS teams into the calculation, but only with a 0.0 for a loss and 1.0 for a victory. It does not consider the record or power of the FCS team. It was purely an assumption that essentially penalizes teams for playing FCS teams. But now days everyone except Notre Dame plays one FCS team so it kind of balances out... maybe.

26 Nov 2022 Ranking

 

Rank		Team	Q	Losses
1		Georgia	155	0
2		TCU	148	0
3		Michigan	148	0
4		Ohio St	142	1
5		USC	139	1
6		Tennessee	138	2
7		Alabama	138	2
8		Penn St	134	2
9		Clemson	133	2
10		Tulane	131	2
11		LSU	129	3
12		Kansas St	129	3
13		Florida St	127	3
14		Oregon	126	3
15		Texas	126	4
16		Washington	125	2
17		Troy	124	2
18		Mississippi St	124	4
19		Oregon St	123	3
20		Utah	122	3
21		UT San Antonio	122	2
22		Notre Dame	121	4
23		Coastal Carolina	121	2
24		Mississippi	120	4
25		UC Los Angeles	120	3
26		South Carolina	120	4
27		South Alabama	119	2
28		North Carolina	118	3
29		NC State	117	4
30		Cent Florida	117	3
31		Boise St	115	3
32		Cincinnati	115	3
33		Kentucky	115	5
34		Texas Tech	113	5
35		Maryland	112	5
36		Purdue	112	4
37		Syracuse	111	5
38		Louisville	111	5
39		Marshall	110	4
40		Pittsburgh	110	4
41		Wake Forest	109	5
42		Illinois	109	4
43		Florida	108	6
44		Fresno St	108	4
45		SMU	107	5
46		Air Force	107	3
47		Oklahoma St	107	5
48		Arkansas	107	6
49		Washington St	106	5
50		Minnesota	105	4
51		Missouri	105	6
52		Auburn	104	7
53		Houston	104	5
54		BYU	104	5
55		Oklahoma	104	6
56		Kansas	104	6
57		James Madison	102	4
58		Baylor	102	6
59		Iowa	102	5
60		Ohio	102	4
61		East Carolina	101	5
62		Duke	100	4
63		West Kentucky	100	5
64		Appalachian St	99	5
65		Vanderbilt	99	7
66		Liberty	98	4
67		Wyoming	98	5
68		San Jose St	98	4
69		Michigan St	97	7
70		San Diego St	96	5
71		Georgia Tech	96	7
72		Wisconsin	96	6
73		North Texas	96	5
74		Memphis	95	6
75		West Virginia	94	7
76		Arizona	94	7
77		Toledo	93	5
78		Texas A&M	93	7
79		Ga Southern	93	6
80		Southern Miss	93	6
81		Mid Tenn St	93	5
82		Navy	93	6
83		UL Lafayette	93	6
84		Miami OH	93	5
85		East Michigan	92	4
86		Bowling Green	92	6
87		UA Birmingham	91	6
88		Connecticut	91	6
89		Indiana	91	8
90		Utah St	91	6
91		Iowa St	89	8
92		Ball St	89	6
93		Kent	88	7
94		Miami FL	88	7
95		Army	85	6
96		California	85	8
97		Rice	85	7
98		Stanford	84	9
99		Buffalo	84	6
100		Rutgers	83	8
101		FL Atlantic	82	7
102		Tulsa	82	7
103		Georgia St	81	8
104		UL Monroe	81	8
105		UT El Paso	79	7
106		UN Las Vegas	79	7
107		Nebraska	78	8
108		Boston College	77	9
109		Virginia	76	7
110		Arizona St	75	9
111		Cent Michigan	73	8
112		Colorado	73	11
113		West Michigan	72	8
114		Texas St	72	8
115		New Mexico St	70	6
116		Old Dominion	69	9
117		Louisiana Tech	69	9
118		Florida Intl	68	8
119		Colorado St	68	9
120		Virginia Tech	68	8
121		Arkansas St	66	9
122		Hawaii	66	10
123		Northwestern	62	11
124		Charlotte	62	9
125		New Mexico	62	10
126		Temple	60	9
127		Akron	59	9
128		North Illinois	59	9
129		South Florida	58	11
130		Nevada	55	10
131		Massachusetts	43	11

19 Nov 2022 Ranking

 

Rank		Team	Q	Losses
1		Georgia	154	0
2		TCU	150	0
3		Ohio St	149	0
4		Michigan	145	0
5		Clemson	141	1
6		LSU	139	2
7		Alabama	139	2
8		Tennessee	137	2
9		USC	137	1
10		Penn St	132	2
11		Oregon	132	2
12		Tulane	130	2
13		Coastal Carolina	129	1
14		Florida St	127	3
15		Notre Dame	127	3
16		Kansas St	126	3
17		Mississippi	126	3
18		Troy	125	2
19		Texas	125	4
20		North Carolina	124	2
21		Utah	123	3
22		Washington	122	2
23		Mississippi St	121	4
24		UT San Antonio	120	2
25		UC Los Angeles	119	3
26		Cincinnati	119	2
27		South Alabama	118	2
28		Cent Florida	118	3
29		Oregon St	117	3
30		Wake Forest	117	4
31		Louisville	116	4
32		NC State	115	4
33		Oklahoma St	115	4
34		South Carolina	114	4
35		Arkansas	113	5
36		Syracuse	112	5
37		Florida	111	5
38		Texas Tech	111	5
39		Maryland	110	5
40		Boise St	110	3
41		Kentucky	110	5
42		Houston	110	4
43		Washington St	109	4
44		Purdue	109	4
45		Iowa	109	4
46		Marshall	108	4
47		Illinois	108	4
48		Oklahoma	107	5
49		Pittsburgh	107	4
50		Kansas	106	5
51		Auburn	106	6
52		Baylor	106	5
53		Liberty	105	3
54		Appalachian St	105	4
55		BYU	104	5
56		SMU	104	5
57		Fresno St	102	4
58		Air Force	102	3
59		Minnesota	101	4
60		San Diego St	100	4
61		Wisconsin	100	5
62		Toledo	100	4
63		Vanderbilt	100	6
64		East Carolina	100	5
65		Wyoming	100	4
66		Missouri	99	6
67		Georgia Tech	98	6
68		Memphis	97	5
69		West Kentucky	97	5
70		Michigan St	96	6
71		Duke	96	4
72		James Madison	96	4
73		Ohio	96	4
74		San Jose St	94	4
75		Bowling Green	94	5
76		Navy	93	6
77		Indiana	92	7
78		Arizona	92	7
79		Ball St	92	5
80		Utah St	91	5
81		North Texas	91	5
82		Miami FL	90	6
83		Southern Miss	90	6
84		UL Lafayette	90	6
85		West Virginia	89	7
86		Iowa St	89	7
87		Connecticut	89	6
88		UA Birmingham	89	6
89		Mid Tenn St	89	5
90		East Michigan	88	4
91		Buffalo	88	5
92		Texas A&M	87	7
93		Stanford	87	8
94		Rice	87	6
95		Ga Southern	86	6
96		Army	86	6
97		California	85	7
98		Miami OH	85	5
99		Rutgers	85	7
100		UL Monroe	84	7
101		FL Atlantic	84	6
102		Georgia St	82	7
103		Kent	82	7
104		Boston College	81	8
105		Arizona St	79	8
106		UT El Paso	79	6
107		Virginia	78	7
108		Cent Michigan	77	7
109		Tulsa	76	7
110		Texas St	75	7
111		UN Las Vegas	75	7
112		Colorado	71	10
113		Louisiana Tech	71	8
114		Nebraska	71	8
115		Old Dominion	69	8
116		Florida Intl	69	7
117		Virginia Tech	68	8
118		Arkansas St	65	8
119		Hawaii	64	9
120		West Michigan	64	8
121		New Mexico	64	9
122		Colorado St	63	9
123		New Mexico St	63	6
124		North Illinois	62	8
125		Northwestern	62	10
126		Charlotte	61	9
127		Temple	61	8
128		South Florida	56	10
129		Nevada	55	9
130		Akron	52	9
131		Massachusetts	43	10

12 Nov 2022 Ranking

 

Rank		Team	Q	Losses
1		Georgia	151	0
2		TCU	150	0
3		Ohio St	149	0
4		Tennessee	145	1
5		Michigan	144	0
6		Alabama	140	2
7		Clemson	140	1
8		LSU	139	2
9		USC	134	1
10		Penn St	131	2
11		North Carolina	130	1
12		Tulane	129	2
13		Utah	129	2
14		Mississippi	128	2
15		Coastal Carolina	128	1
16		Oregon	128	2
17		Notre Dame	127	3
18		Florida St	125	3
19		Kansas St	125	3
20		Washington	124	2
21		UC Los Angeles	124	2
22		Cent Florida	124	2
23		Troy	123	2
24		Texas	123	4
25		Oklahoma St	122	3
26		Mississippi St	121	4
27		NC State	120	3
28		Florida	118	4
29		South Alabama	118	2
30		Cincinnati	117	2
31		UT San Antonio	117	2
32		Syracuse	117	4
33		Oregon St	117	3
34		Liberty	115	2
35		Maryland	112	4
36		Louisville	112	4
37		Wake Forest	111	4
38		Texas Tech	111	5
39		Purdue	110	4
40		Illinois	110	3
41		Kansas	110	4
42		Kentucky	109	4
43		Baylor	107	4
44		Toledo	107	3
45		Minnesota	107	3
46		SMU	106	4
47		Washington St	106	4
48		Boise St	106	3
49		Iowa	105	4
50		Marshall	105	4
51		Houston	105	4
52		East Carolina	104	4
53		Arkansas	104	5
54		South Carolina	103	4
55		BYU	103	5
56		Pittsburgh	103	4
57		Oklahoma	103	5
58		Michigan St	102	5
59		Wyoming	102	3
60		Appalachian St	101	4
61		Auburn	101	6
62		Fresno St	100	4
63		Duke	100	3
64		San Diego St	100	4
65		Ball St	100	4
66		West Kentucky	99	4
67		Wisconsin	99	5
68		Connecticut	97	5
69		San Jose St	97	3
70		Memphis	97	5
71		Missouri	97	6
72		Air Force	97	3
73		Arizona	95	6
74		Stanford	94	7
75		Southern Miss	94	5
76		North Texas	93	5
77		Iowa St	92	6
78		UL Lafayette	92	5
79		Vanderbilt	92	6
80		Ohio	91	4
81		James Madison	90	4
82		UA Birmingham	90	5
83		Ga Southern	90	5
84		Georgia Tech	90	6
85		FL Atlantic	89	5
86		West Virginia	89	6
87		Miami FL	88	5
88		Rice	88	5
89		Buffalo	87	5
90		Bowling Green	87	5
91		Indiana	87	7
92		Utah St	87	5
93		Cent Michigan	86	6
94		Kent	86	6
95		East Michigan	85	4
96		Navy	85	6
97		Georgia St	85	6
98		Texas A&M	84	7
99		Rutgers	84	6
100		UL Monroe	83	6
101		Mid Tenn St	83	5
102		Arizona St	82	7
103		California	82	7
104		Miami OH	81	5
105		Boston College	81	7
106		UN Las Vegas	80	6
107		Army	79	6
108		Virginia	78	7
109		Louisiana Tech	75	7
110		Tulsa	74	7
111		Florida Intl	73	6
112		UT El Paso	73	6
113		Nebraska	72	7
114		Texas St	72	7
115		Colorado	71	9
116		Old Dominion	71	7
117		Arkansas St	69	7
118		New Mexico St	64	5
119		New Mexico	64	8
120		North Illinois	63	7
121		Northwestern	62	9
122		Colorado St	61	8
123		South Florida	60	9
124		Virginia Tech	60	8
125		Temple	60	7
126		Hawaii	58	9
127		West Michigan	57	8
128		Charlotte	56	9
129		Akron	55	9
130		Nevada	52	8
131		Massachusetts	48	9